GAME WEEK 34
Syndicate target returns 25% vs Season to date returns 30%*
Key Bets Under Consideration**
Recommendations as a percentage of total bankroll
Pre-match passive bets (ie no in-play trade required)
3%@>2.2 SWA to beat Sou - 2.43@Pinnacle
2%@>1.65 Qpr v Sto - Under 2.5 - 1.71@Pinnacle
2%>1.7 Liv v Che - Over 2.5 - 1.78@Pinnacle
High variance/In-play closeout bets
1%@>3.2 Tot v Mci DRAW 3.53@Pinnacle
0.5%@>5 FUL to beat Ars- 5.59@Pinnacle
In a week where Pinnacle have been taken off some of the main price comparison websites (likely because of their low paying affiliate deals), they seem to have pulled out the stops with some monster prices.
(Note that we still include Pinnacle Sports on our price comparisons at www.betting-bible.com/football-betting although this page is not available on tablets).
Anyway, back to the picks...
Swa v Sou
Given their recent results, Swansea have been accused of cruising since their cup success and inevitable safety, however historic stats for teams in this position at this stage illustrates that this is well within the natural variance of football results. In addition there is evidence to the contrary that Swansea players will be motivated for the end of season run-in, what with the suggestion of win bonuses for players, and the recent success of the neighbouring Welsh club stealing some of the limelight away from the Swans in the most historic season for the club. With no injury concerns for either side, the value in the Swansea win looks over 5%, therefore don't be surprised if the 2.43 has gone by the time you check, however Will Hill are also offering the game at 2.4.
Qpr v Sto
Contrary to some of our recent over 2.5 goal picks for Qpr games, the absence of Zamora has significantly abated the goal threat from Harry's side, and unlike other games where Qpr will be likely to gung-ho if the other team score at all playing into the hands of the over 2.5 bet, Stoke have only scored 9 goals away from home in the league all season, which changes the dynamic of this bet slightly, as it becomes more important for Qpr to protect a lead if they're able to get one, so we price the under 2.5 goals at a 60%+ type event.
Liv v Che
A standard over pick for 2 teams with as high scoring rates making it a 60%+ type event compared to the 56% implied in the price. The Chelsea team selection will need to be considered as Rafa will rotate, and if key scoring players such as Mata and Hazard are rested we're likely to avoid the pick.
Tot v Mci
Another game with a keen eye on the team selections, in particular with doubts around players such as Bale, Lennon, Silva, and Aguero. Whilst there does appear to be good value in the pregame draw price, this could drift further up to kick off, so there is some scope for holding off placing bets until closer to KO for those looking to maximise value. In addition, as in the United v City derby, it is a potential swing game with value in trading prices upon the introduction of key substitutes if the scorelines remain close, as we continue to find evidence of inefficiencies on inplay prices around the introduction of key player substitutions.
Ful v Ars
Obviously a high variance pick, however it's a big price, particularly given the potential absence of Wilshire, Rosicky, and Cazorla, which presents a potentially worrying proposition for Arenal's creative ability in the final third. The draw backs for Fulham are the absence of Duff, and the significance of the game for the Arsenal team, however simplistically, it still looks much more like a 20%+ type event, rather than the ~18% implied by the Fulham price, and it's currently a whopping 2% arb, so it does look like all the value is in the Fulham win.
* Returns as % of bankroll per season - read the Value Betting tutorial for more info. Includes 12% rtn on FPL top scorer betting
**All bets subject to review of price movements, team announcements and in play trading opportunities on gamedays. Please follow the Twitter account for game day news