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GW33 Bets

GAME WEEK 33 (Part 1)
Syndicate target returns 25% vs Season to date returns 35.5%*

Key Bets Under Consideration**
Recommendations as a percentage of total bankroll

Pre-match passive bets (ie no in-play trade required)
2%@>1.65 Eve v QPR - Over 2.5 - 1.76Pinnacle
2%@>1.75 Barnsley v Charlton - Under 2.5 - 1.86Pinnacle
2%@>1.75 Leeds v Shef Wed - Under 2.5 -  1.91@Coral
1%@>2 Sou to beat Whm 1.95Bet365 (ie take if drifts further out)

High variance/In-play closeout bets
1%@>6.5 Rea to beat Liv - 8@Bet365

Given that this week's Premier league fixtures go on until next Wednesday, we've only considered the weekend games thus far...

Passive Bets

Eve v Qpr
In spite of Zamora's suspension from last week, Harry looks set to continue to select an attacking line-up to go for the win, as winning is the only way they'll get out of relegation. Likewise, Everton will be playing for the win, as they'll still think they have a chance of Champions league football if results go their way, and their full compliment of attacking players return this week. This situation faciliates an open game, particularly after the first goal is scored, which plays nicely into the hands of the over goals bet.

Championship bets
Almost entirely statistical picks as there continues to be evidence that even though there is a bigger bookmaker overround on the Championship bets (ie higher commission inherent within the prices), the basic goal modelling technique applied effectively to the Premier league can be replicated for the Championship with similar degrees of accuracy, resulting in some good value from the Championship games. This value is not without a higher variance/standard deviations, however long-term returns are potentially significantly higher.

Sou v Whm
As mentioned above, this is not at our target price as yet, however has been drifting out all week, and we're hopeful it may touch evens by KO so have included.

Rea v Liv
'The Liverpool lay' has reaped rewards for over 2 seasons now. We don't mention every oppportunity to lay Liverpool as part of our key bets under consideration each week, however as we've said previously, if you blind laid them every week, it has been the most profitable single team match bet for the past 2 seasons, and whilst we have noticed some convergence of the pricing error, whether it has been Dixon-Coles, historic averages, or relative valuation, all our pricing methods have suggested long-term value in opposing them every week this season. This doesn't mean blow your bankroll on the Reading win, it remains a high-variance pick, however it's worth taking some exposure to, and given the propensity for Liverpool win prices to drift in right up to kick off, you may be able to take some exposure at 8.5/9 if you're patient.


* Returns as % of bankroll per season - read the Value Betting tutorial for more info. Includes 12% rtn on FPL top scorer betting
**All bets subject to review of price movements, team announcements and in play trading opportunities on gamedays. Please follow the Twitter account for game day news


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