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GW27 Bets

Syndicate target returns 25% vs Season to date returns 44%*

GW26 Key Bets Under Consideration**
Recommendations as a percentage of total bankroll

(12:45 KO) 2.5%@>2 FUL to beat Sto 2.2@Coral

2%@>1.8 Nor v Eve - Under 2.5 goals 1.9@StanJames

2%@>1.75 Rea v Wig - Over 2.5 goals 1.91@Pinnacle

1.5%@>3.8 NOR to beat Eve 3.9@Pinnacle (drifting in)

1.5%@2.5 REA to beat Wig 2.7@BetVictor

(Sun 13:30) 2%@>1.7 New v Sou - Over 2.5 goals 1.85@Pinnacle

A wide spread of picks under review this week…

Ful to beat Stoke
The Fulham home win bet has outperformed bookmaker odds more than any other team in the premier league over the past 10 years, albeit with a higher season to season variance than someone like Man United. This season, Fulham’s home performance has been much closer to the odds implied win rate, however they have had a number key player injury problems. Now though, Fulham finally have the attacking options of Duff, Rodellaga, Berbatov, and Ruiz all fit at the same time as the brockers in midfield in the form of Frimpong and Sidwell, who enable these attacking players to be more influential at the right end of the field. Couple all of this with Stoke’s away form, and you’ve got yourself a pretty standard value pick.

Nor v Eve under 2.5
Norwich have both scored and conceded 14 goals at home this season, and 5 of those goals conceded were at the start of the season against Luis Suarez’s Liverpool, when neither Bassong nor Tettey weren’t playing. As such, it doesn’t take much to figure out their fundamental home tactics: Keep shape, and nick one.

Rea v Wig over 2.5 goals
Not a great deal to say on these 2 teams. Whilst Reading have definitely tightened up defensively since changing to only one up top, both teams concede almost 2 goals per game whether they’re playing home or away, and at almost an even money shot, we're more than happy to take the price.

Nor to beat Eve
Clearly a high variance pick, however following on from the comments above, their home tactic is pretty clear – do not concede and we’re in with a chance. They’ve already taken the scalps of Man United and Arsenal at Carrow Road this season, and came close to doing the same against Spurs, and their approach against Everton is likely to be similar.
For an alternative even higher variance pick, but at a lower stake (0.25%) you could take some exposure to this bet via the Norwich 1-0, as 3 of their 5 home wins this season have been by this score. As usual, BetVictor are leading the way on the correct score prices, with 12s (11 to 1) available for this bet.

New v Sou over 2.5 goals
Southampton have conceded 30 goals in 13 games away from home this season, and although Newcastle haven’t been in prolific goal scoring form across the season as a whole, we believe that their injection of new players and key players returning from injury gives them a higher goal scoring threat than the market price seems to have factored in just yet.

* Returns as % of bankroll per season - read the Value Betting tutorial for more info. Includes 12% rtn on FPL top scorer betting
**All bets subject to review of price movements and team announcements on  gamedays. Please follow the Twitter account for game day news


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